Poker Math Made Easy – The Rule of 4 and 2

Some poker players have no trouble at all with the math that is necessarily a part of poker. Others, well, they have to play by “feel”, because the math just escapes them. If you are in the latter group, here is an easy way to approximate your chances of making or improving your hand.

After the flop, count your outs. For example, if you are four to the flush, you have nine outs. If you have an open-ended straight draw, you have eight outs. There may be several ways to improve your hand, so figure out the total number of outs. Now, multiply your outs by four, and that will be your approximate percentage chance of improving/making your hand. If you want to get more specific, subtract one percent for every out you have in excess of eight outs. So, if you have nine outs, the math goes like this: 9 x 4 = 36 – 1 = 35%. That formula works after the flop.

After the turn, the math is different. Multiply your outs by two and then add two to that number. So, if you miss your flush card on the turn, with one card left to come on the river, and still nine outs, your odds of making the flush are about 20% : 9 x 2 = 18 + 2 = 20%.

This trick won’t give you the exact percentage, but it gets you close enough to consider your bet as a percentage of the total size of the pot. If you have a 20% chance to make your hand, and you are required to call a bet less than 20% of the total pot, the math says you should call. If the required bet as a percent of the total pot exceeds your chances of making your hand, the math says you should fold.

Keep in mind that this does not take into consideration implied odds. Pot odds may say fold, whereas implied odds may say call. For instruction in implied odds, read any of the excellent books from Two Plus Two publishing, several of which are available further down this page.

Lee Jones SAGE (TM) System for Heads-Up Play

Lee Jones has an excellent article in Card Player magazine explaining his SAGE/Sit and Go Endgame (TM) system for heads-up no-limit Holdem play. You need to read this article! This system, combined with the simple math techniques described in our earlier article (Poker Math Made Easy) will give you a significant advantage over MANY of the poker players you encounter in live or online tourneys.

The SAGE (TM) system will help you to avoid the deadly heads-up mistake of playing too tight. In addition to employing this system, our advice is to play alot of heads-up SNG tourneys online. It is invaluable to have that experience when you make the final two of a tournament. Especially if single table SNG is your specialty, then you really must play ALOT of heads-up SNG tournaments also as part of your “training”.

Don’t be a Drip….Fix Your Leaking Game

Poor play in the blinds, and the small blind in particular, is such a common problem, that it is one of the major leaks in many players games. As Chuck Blount points out in this article, it is just too easy to call that one-half bet from the small blind. After all, I already have money “invested” in the hand, don’t I?

Well, that is one way of looking at it. Such an approach to the blinds may not be patently wrong, but if you aren’t careful, that attitude of having something “invested” in the hand can lead to other costly mistakes, such as fiercely “defending” the blinds, which, in many limit game situations (low limit/full table games in particular), can be down right silly, and extremely costly.

While the blinds are forced, mandatory bets, I tend to view the blinds not so much as investments in a particular hand as I do the “rent” paid for the privilege of having a seat at the table, and the rent just comes due every so often, regardless of what cards I happen to be holding at that point in time. So, I pay my “rent”, and if the cards and/or situation warrant it, I play my hand.

Now, that philosophy can be carried to an extreme as well, and the other astute players you are up against can and do abuse players who are passive pushovers in the blinds. However, what I am recommending here is not allowing yourself to be steamrolled when in the blinds. But you have to think about, analyze what is developing in these hands where you happen to be in one of the blinds. Kneejerk calling or folding doesn’t qualify as thoughtful, smart play in most situations. In or out of the blinds, your (limit Holdem) game should be about smart, tight play, coupled with thoughtful aggression when you do decide to play a hand. Just don’t let your incidental position in the blind make your mind up for you.

So, does that mean being in the blind shouldn’t influence your decision to play a hand. NO! On the contrary, it is a major factor, for at least a couple of reasons. First, being in the blinds is a position issue, and position is paramount in poker. Second, even though I don’t advocate the idea of the blinds having anything “invested” in the hand, you certainly are correct to consider the “discount” you are getting by virtue of having already put in the blind bet, and that “discount” means there is a wider range of playable hands available to you in the blinds, especially the big blind, depending on the betting which has already taken place when the action reaches you.

Blount’s article does a good job of showing how expensive poor blind play (pre-flop) can be. For some good advice on pre-flop play from the blinds (and all other positions as well) you need to consider the Preflop50 Hand Strength System we have developed. Just click on the banner at the top of the page.It is available as a free PDF download.